Simulating the impact of Belt and Road initiative and other major developments in Myanmar on an ambassador felid, the clouded leopard, Neofelis nebulosa

Żaneta Kaszta,Dawn Burnham,Hla Naing,Saw Htun,Samuel A. Cushman,David W. Macdonald

doi:10.1007/s10980-020-00976-z

Abstract

ContextAfter decades of political and economic isolation, Myanmar is now the focus of large international investments, particularly from China, which raises questions of how to balance national development with safeguarding the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot.ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of five major developments in Myanmar on forest ecosystems, using clouded leopard as a focal and umbrella species for wider biodiversity conservation.MethodsBased on an empirical habitat relationships model, we identified core areas and corridors in Myanmar, and compared them across the development scenarios. We simulated population dynamics and genetic diversity in each scenario using an individual-based, spatially explicit cost-distance population genetics model.ResultsThe predicted current clouded leopard population may be larger than the current carrying capacity of the landscape, raising the possibility that the species’ population has not yet equilibrated with recent habitat loss and degradation. All the developments combined resulted in 36% decrease in landscape connectivity and 29% decrease in simulated clouded leopard population size, including substantial reduction in genetic diversity. Each development was predicted to have a negative effect; however, emerging economic zones had disproportionally large impacts (− 24% in connectivity and − 25% in population size), resulting in fragmentation of the largest core areas. Similarly, the Indian Highway and Silk Road caused fragmentation of the largest core habitats, and the Pipeline Railroad significantly decreased connectivity in the main stronghold for clouded leopards.ConclusionsSpatially-explicit assessments like the one presented here provide quantitative evaluation on development impacts and help optimize the trade-offs between development and conservation. The rapid and increasing development of Myanmar and surrounding Southeast Asian nations pose an enormous threat to the biodiversity of the region. Optimizing the trade-off between development goals and conservation is essential to minimize the effects of rapid land use change on biodiversity.

Highlights

Southeast Asia is experiencing the highest development growth and deforestation rates in the world, while harbouring a vast richness of biodiversity
The predicted current clouded leopard population may be larger than the current carrying capacity of the landscape, raising the possibility that the species’ population has not yet equilibrated with recent habitat loss and degradation
All the developments combined resulted in 36% decrease in landscape connectivity and 29% decrease in simulated clouded leopard population size, including substantial reduction in genetic diversity

Summary

Introduction

Southeast Asia is experiencing the highest development growth and deforestation rates in the world, while harbouring a vast richness of biodiversity. At the current deforestation rate, within 100 years the region could lose three quarters of its original forests and up to 42% of its biodiversity (Sodhi et al 2004). The economic and political isolation of Myanmar over the past 70 years has resulted in a complex mixture of conditions. First and foremost, from the perspective of conservation, it resulted in very low economic and population growth as compared to other nations in the region. One unintended consequence of this is that Myanmar today retains a substantially higher amount of native forest and the largest extents of unfragmented forest ecosystems and the wildlife populations they support of all of Southeast Asia (Macdonald et al 2019)

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Conclusion