Simulating the CCUS technology diffusion in thermal power plants: An agent-based evolutionary game model in complex networks

Abstract

The utilization of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology is critical for achieving carbon neutrality and establishing a circular carbon economy. Thermal power plants represent a significant contributor to carbon emissions, and facilitating the spread of CCUS technology throughout the power industry is a crucial means of advancing this technology. The diffusion of CCUS technology would be influenced by policy incentives, market environment, enterprises' individual characteristics as well as complex social network relationships. To study the impacts of these factors on the diffusion of CCUS technology, this study develops an evolutionary game model of CCUS technology diffusion in thermal power plants based on a small-world network. This model includes agents as the network nodes with different production capacities and decision preferences. Through numerical simulations, the study examined the impact of market prices, carbon taxes, and subsidies as incentive measures under different diffusion environments. The results demonstrate that those with higher production capabilities show a higher level of sensitivity to incentives for technology diffusion. To reduce fiscal expenditure, the government can adopt differentiated incentive measures for enterprises with varying production capacities. In addition, the synergistic combination of various incentive measures can effectively decrease the government's expenses in promoting CCUS technology. The incentive mechanisms for promoting CCUS diffusion should be implemented preferably during the early stage of low-carbon transition in the power sector. As the operating hours of thermal power plants decrease, the cost of promoting technology diffusion increases.