Abstract
Aims Climatic change has and will continue to decrease summer precipitation in the Dongling Mountain area of Beijing, China. Decreased precipitation impacts trees and hence temperate forest vegetation. Experimental studies suggested that the effects of decreasing summer precipitation on forest were closely related to species-specific characteristics during drought. Our major goals were to project the impact of decreasing summer precipitation on forest dynamics in this region and to analyze long-term consequences of tree-species specific drought response of the temperate forest ecosystem. Methods We used LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model coupled with different water uptake strategies to investigate drought effects on trees and forests in this temperate region of China. Important findings Increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon biomass of the predicted area under future climate conditions of increased temperature and elevated CO2 concentration were independent of summer precipitation. This suggests that precipitation will not be the limiting factor in this area. However, tree diversity strongly depended on the drought response that we assumed. Drought-sensitive tree species (e.g., Juglans mand- shurica) were not influenced by long-term drought, whereas the carbon biomass of the most drought-tolerant spe- cies (i.e., Quercus liaotungensis) would decrease in the future. Moreover, tree-species specific drought response will affect the water cycle of the temperate forest, including evapotranspiration. Our findings of the spe- cies-specific drought response should be considered in future ecosystem models.
Published Version
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