Simulated impacts of three decadal climate variability phenomena on dryland corn and wheat yields in the Missouri River Basin

Abstract

The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in the U.S. and is one of the most important crop and livestock-producing regions in the world. In a previous study of associations between decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and hydro-meteorological (HM) variability in the MRB for the March–August period, and their impacts on stream flow in the MRB, it was found that positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature gradient variability (TAG), and the west Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) temperature variability were significantly associated with decadal variability in precipitation and surface air temperature in the MRB, with combinations of various phases of these DCV phenomena associated with dry, wet, or neutral HM conditions. It was also found that these DCV phenomena impact stream flow in the MRB substantially via their association with MRB hydro-meteorology. In the present study, the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator model, also known as the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, calibrated and validated for the MRB, was used to simulate yields of dryland corn ( Zea mays L.) and spring and winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.), in response to HM anomalies associated with the three DCV phenomena. Realistic values of indices of the three DCV phenomena have major impacts on crop yields, as much as 40–50% of average yield in some locations in the MRB and also evident in MRB-aggregated crop yields; however, our results show that the impacts can be location-specific. Since each of the three DCV phenomena can persist in one phase or another for several years to a decade or longer, and since the simultaneous correlation among these phenomena is negligibly small, their combined and cumulative positive/negative effects on the MRB HM and agricultural production can be dramatic in this major American and global “bread basket”. In addition, EPIC's success in simulating long-term crop yields in the MRB, taking technology trends into account, suggests that, if the evolution of major DCV phenomena can be forecast, it may be possible to forecast, as well, some multiyear to decadal measure of crop yields in the MRB with some skill.