Simulated Abrupt Shifts in Aerobic Habitats of Marine Species in the Past, Present, and Future

Abstract

AbstractThe physiological tolerances of marine species toward ambient temperature and oxygen can jointly be evaluated in a single metric: the metabolic index. Changes therein characterize a changing aerobic habitat tailored to species‐specific thermal and hypoxia sensitivity traits. If the geographical limits of marine species as indicated by critical thresholds of the metabolic index shift abruptly in response to ocean warming and deoxygenation, aerobic habitat could potentially be lost abruptly. Here, we assess the spatio‐temporal detectability of abrupt shifts in potential habitats for selected marine species within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5‐8.5) scenario run with the fully coupled Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 (NorESM2‐LM). We use an environmental time series changepoint detection routine and analyze the number and timing of these abrupt changes over the past, present and future. We construct nine ecophysiotypes with low, medium, and high resting vulnerability to hypoxia and sensitivity of hypoxia vulnerability to temperature, respectively, with six different thresholds for minimal oxygen demand. For all ecophysiotypes with positive temperature sensitivity to hypoxia, the volume of non‐viable habitat in the upper ocean expands between 1850 and 2100. Changepoints in the metabolic index are detected in 49.0 ± 9.2% of the volume that eventually becomes non‐viable for all ecophysiotypes over the course of the 21st century. More than 75% of these abrupt shifts occur in response to warming close to the surface, while at depth, the abrupt shifts driven by changes in oxygen partial pressure become more important, with potentially severe consequences for marine species, populations, and ecosystems.