Significant Improvement in the Accuracy of Pressure-Transient Analysis Using Total Least Squares

Abstract

Summary In this study, we show significant improvements over conventional pressure-transient analysis on the basis of nonlinear regression by using total least squares (TLS), which minimizes errors in both pressure and time simultaneously. To our knowledge, TLS has not been applied to pressure-transient analysis before in this sense. TLS regression is not an easy problem to solve mathematically, especially for nonlinear pressure-transient-model functions. In this work, we compare four different versions of TLS. We formulate a robust approximation of the TLS solution, which can handle a variety of tests and reservoir models yet does not compromise the performance of the analysis. We show that our technique reduces ambiguity in the estimation of parameters to a large extent, especially in the presence of noise in time. Using our TLS algorithm, we obtain much narrower confidence intervals on the parameter estimates of a variety of real data sets, compared to the conventional least squares (LS) approach. For synthetic data sets, we observe that the TLS estimates are often closer to the true values than estimates made with LS, especially for poorly determined problems. When the deviation is in pressure only, TLS and LS results are comparable. However, in the presence of deviations in time in addition to pressure, the performance of TLS algorithms is substantially better. We, therefore, expect that our technique will provide more accurate estimation of reservoir parameters, allowing for better forecasting of reservoir performance.