Signaling effects of recurrent list‐price reductions on the likelihood of house sales

Abstract

Recurrent list-price reductions for a house may signal the impatience of sellers to conclude a sell transaction more quickly, leading to more visits and a higher likelihood of being sold (positive signal). Recurrent list-price reductions may also provide a market signal that the listing is problematic and thus harder to sell without a list-price reduction, leading to a lower likelihood of being sold (negative signal). Unlike standard survival analysis, we investigate which signal prevails using a joint frailty model that accounts for the interdependence among recurrent list-price reductions and the association between the recurrent reductions and the sold event. Our novel data set contains the time-dated recurrent list-price reductions for each house listed on the market. The results from the joint frailty model show time-varying negative impacts of list-price reductions on the likelihood of a house sale, supporting the dominance of the negative signaling effects of recurrent list-price reductions. Although listings with frequent list-price reductions are less likely to be sold, sold houses sell at a higher ratio of sold price to last list price, which incorporates current market conditions and fairer pricing, holding constant the initial list price and the aggregate list-price reduction from the initial list price.