Signaling and Tactical Hedging as Political Tools in the Formation of Minilateral Security Coalitions: Quad and AUKUS in the Indo-Pacific Region

Abstract

This article explores the dynamics of minilateral institutions such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and the Trilateral Security Partnership (AUKUS). As the global order shifts from unipolarity to multipolarity, finding truly “like-minded” allies for strategic coordination remains a challenging task. Thus, states as hedgers deploy signaling and tactical hedging to build mutual trust and “like-minded allies”. The revival of QUAD in 2017 was a response to strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region, where China is increasingly influencing the regional security architecture. The recent creation of AUKUS can be seen as a tactical hedging by the US, UK and Australia against challenges from China in the South China Sea disputes. In this article, signaling and tactical hedging approaches are considered as a means of assessing the readiness of allies to cooperate in a minilateral format. Minilateral partnerships facilitate cooperation among key regional actors, while signaling mechanisms are used to convey intentions and deter adversaries. Additionally, the concept of tactical hedging is analyzed, highlighting the nuanced strategies used by countries to navigate a complex security environment. The analysis shows that states resort to tactical signaling and hedging maneuvers to advance their interests and limit the influence of competitors, while avoiding unnecessary confrontation. For instance, the implications of minilateralism extend beyond mere military cooperation; they also encompass economic and diplomatic dimensions that can shape regional stability. For instance, while QUAD emphasizes a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), its focus on non-traditional security issues such as climate change and health policy. Minilateral formats like QUAD and AUKUS are thus increasingly important as flexible cooperation tools for regulating security in the region. By exploring these interrelated elements, the article aims to provide insights into the evolving security architecture of QUAD and AUKUS in the Indo-Pacific.