Showcasing Advances in Climate Prediction and Early Warning Systems in the Greater Horn of Africa

Abstract

The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region is most vulnerable to climate-related risks. The effects of climate change have become increasingly evident in the region through a rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, notably recurrent and severe droughts, floods, landslides, and tropical cyclones. These extreme climatic events have had far-reaching consequences on the key socio-economic sectors. The extended drought experienced in 2020/2022 led to the loss of millions of livestock and plunged millions of individuals into poverty, prompting forced displacement and insecurity. In contrast, the strong El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events in 2023/2024 brought substantial rainfall to Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya in October and November 2023, resulting in flooding that has caused the loss of over 100 lives and displaced more than 700,000 people. Thus, providing reliable and timely climate information is essential for climate services and is increasingly crucial in supporting decision-making processes across a range of climate-sensitive sectors and reducing extreme climate impact.  The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), as a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre (RCC), currently performs the mandatory and recommended RCC functions covering the domains of climate monitoring, climate forecasting, capacity development, and generation of regional and sub-regional tailored products relevant to the various socio-economic sectors. ICPAC has developed improved and tailored climate products and innovative decision support tools to enhance early warning services. It is also one of the first RCCs to adopt the objective forecasting technique and produce a traceable, reproducible, and verifiable forecast based on WMO’s recommendation. Innovative approaches to user engagement through co-production, communication channels, user-friendly interfaces, and dissemination of climate information have also been developed.  In this session, we would like to showcase the innovative early warning methods, products, services, and platforms developed by ICPAC for response planning and anticipatory actions to enhance community resilience in the GHA region. This includes improved objective forecasting methods for monthly and seasonal forecast products, innovative approaches to user engagement through co-production, communication channels, and sector-tailored products (onset, cessation, dry and wet spells, probability of exceedance).