Short-term load forecasting model based on EEMD-LSTS-ARIMA

Abstract

To improve the accuracy of the short-term power load forecasting, this paper designed a model, namely, the first to use based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method based on the collection of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) in order to improve signal decomposition in the process of modal aliasing phenomenon and false component, and using the decomposition method of power load data decomposition, modal components with different characteristics, and according to its characteristics can be divided into high frequency components, intermediate frequency and low frequency components, Then the Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) is used for load forecasting. Using the autoregressive Integrated moving average model (Arima) to correct the predicted residual error, the load forecasting model based on EEMD-LSTM-ARIMA is established. Finally, the data of Queensland, Australia is used as the research sample. On the above prediction model, the data of this region is input into the model for power load prediction. At the end of the prediction, the final prediction results are compared with the EEMD-LSTM model through root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Through comparison, it is found that the method used in this paper has a high prediction accuracy.