Short-term global horizontal irradiance forecasting based on a hybrid CNN-LSTM model with spatiotemporal correlations

Abstract

Abstract Accurate short-term solar irradiance forecasting is crucial for ensuring the optimum utilization of photovoltaic power generation sources. This study addresses this issue by proposing a spatiotemporal correlation model based on deep learning. The proposed model first applies a convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract spatial features from a two-dimensional matrix composed of meteorological parameters associated with a target site and its neighboring sites. Then, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network is applied to extract temporal features from historical solar irradiance time-series data associated with the target site. Finally, the spatiotemporal correlations are merged to predict global horizontal irradiance one hour in advance. The prediction performance and generalization ability of the proposed CNN-LSTM model are evaluated within a whole year, under diverse seasons and sky conditions. Three datasets are involved for case studies, which are collected from 34 locations spread across three different climate zones in Texas, USA. Moreover, the performance of the CNN-LSTM model is compared with those obtained using the CNN, LSTM, and other benchmark models based on five evaluation metrics. The results indicate that the proposed model has advantages over the other models considered and provides a good alternative for short-term solar radiation prediction.