Short-Term Forecasting Of Gross Regional Product Using Production Functions

Abstract

The article discusses the issues of short-term forecasting of gross regional product values, which is a key indicator of the functioning and development of regional socio-economic systems using the apparatus of production functions. Neoclassical two-factor neoclassical production functions with constant (CES - function) and variable (VES - function) elasticity of substitution of production cost factors of the system under consideration were used as tools. The economic indicators of the average number of people employed in the economy of the regional socio-economic system and the cost of its fixed assets, taking into account the speed of their retirement at the end of the year, were used, as factors of production costs. To build the above production functions, the index values of these indicators were used. The construction was carried out by the methods of mathematical statistics with the subsequent assessment of accuracy and adequacy by the corresponding generally accepted statistical criteria. After the forecast of changes in the values of indicators characterizing the factors of production costs, the latter were substituted into the constructed production functions to obtain a predictive estimate of the regional gross product. By the example of the economic system of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Yugra, estimates were made of the changes in the values of this economic indicator with a forecast horizon of one year. The forecasting results were compared with the data of socio-economic statistics presented by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) in a regional context.