Abstract
Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was discovered in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and has affected millions of lives worldwide. On 29th April 2020, Malaysia reported more than 5,000 COVID-19 cases; the second highest in the Southeast Asian region after Singapore. Recently, a forecasting model was developed to measure and predict COVID-19 cases in Malaysia on daily basis for the next 10 days using previously-confirmed cases. A Recurrent Forecasting-Singular Spectrum Analysis (RF-SSA) is proposed by establishing L and ET parameters via several tests. The advantage of using this forecasting model is it would discriminate noise in a time series trend and produce significant forecasting results. The RF-SSA model assessment was based on the official COVID-19 data released by the World Health Organization (WHO) to predict daily confirmed cases between 30th April and 31st May, 2020. These results revealed that parameter L = 5 (T/20) for the RF-SSA model was indeed suitable for short-time series outbreak data, while the appropriate number of eigentriples was integral as it influenced the forecasting results. Evidently, the RF-SSA had over-forecasted the cases by 0.36%. This signifies the competence of RF-SSA in predicting the impending number of COVID-19 cases. Nonetheless, an enhanced RF-SSA algorithm should be developed for higher effectivity of capturing any extreme data changes.
Highlights
In 2020, Malaysia has witnessed the outbreak of a virus called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or COVID-19 that is highly infectious to human’s respiratory system, hepatic system, gastrointestinal system, and neurological disorders
This study assessed the applicability of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)-RF model in predicting the COVID-19 cases in Malaysia
The parameters used in this model were window length, L, and the total of ET employed for reconstruction, r
Summary
In 2020, Malaysia has witnessed the outbreak of a virus called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or COVID-19 that is highly infectious to human’s respiratory system, hepatic system, gastrointestinal system, and neurological disorders. This virus can spread between humans, livestock, and wild animals, such as birds, bats, and mice [1, 2]. Belonging to the coronavirus family, this novel virus type is accountable as a cause for mild to moderate colds. The SARS-CoV-2 may cause severe acute respiratory illnesses that result in fatality for various cases. In Malaysia, the virus started to spread swiftly by the end of January
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
