Short-term effect of ambient temperature and ambient temperature changes on the risk of warts outpatient visits in Hefei, China: a retrospective time-series study.

Abstract

Concerns are growing about the adverse health effects of ambient temperature and ambient temperature changes. However, the association between ambient temperature and ambient temperature changes on the risk of warts outpatient visits is poorly understood. Our study used the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) aimed to evaluate the association between ambient temperature, ambient temperature changes (including temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) and diurnal temperature range (DTR)), and warts outpatient visits. We also performed subgroup analyses in order to find susceptible populations by gender and age groups. The maximum relative risk (RR) of low ambient temperature (0°C) for warts outpatient visits was 1.117 (95% CI: 1.041-1.198, lag 04days), and the maximum RR of high ambient temperature (32°C) for warts outpatient visits was 1.318 (95% CI: 1.083-1.605, lag 07days). The large temperature drop (TCN = - 3°C) decreased the risk of warts visits, with the lowest RR value at the cumulative exposure of lag 7days (RR = 0.888, 95% CI: 0.822-0.959), and the large temperature rise (TCN = 2°C) increased the risk of warts visits, with the highest RR value at the cumulative exposure of lag 7days (RR = 1.080, 95% CI: 1.022-1.142). Overall, both low and high ambient temperatures and large temperature rise can increase the risk of warts visits, while large temperature drop is a protective factor for warts visits. However, we did not find any association between DTR and warts visits. Furthermore, subgroup analyses showed that males and the young (0-17years old) were more sensitive to low and high ambient temperatures, and the elderly (≥ 65years old) were more susceptible to TCN. The results may provide valuable evidence for reducing the disease burden of warts in the future.