Short-term wind power forecasting based on meteorological feature extraction and optimization strategy

Abstract

Accurate wind power forecasting is a vital factor in day-ahead dispatch and increasing the level of penetration of renewable energy. The feature extraction of meteorological factors related to wind power output is a big challenge to improve forecasting accuracy, and selecting key meteorological factors based on experience will decrease the prediction accuracy. Therefore, a day-ahead wind power combined forecasting approach is innovatively proposed through key meteorological factors selection, data decomposition and reconstruction, combined forecasting model generation, and optimization strategy. Correlated variables namely variational mode decomposition and weighted permutation entropy (VMD-WPE) decomposed historical wind power and key meteorological factors are used as the inputs. A forecasting model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM) is used to forecast future wind power. Four optimizers with different optimization performances are used to find the best parameters of the forecasting model to obtain accurate prediction results. Multiple comparative experiments from regional wind farms in Ningxia and Jilin of China are utilized as case studies to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms other benchmark prediction models, taking into account multiple-error metrics including error metrics, accuracy rate, and improvement percentages.