Ultra-short-term Wind Power Prediction Model Based on VMD Decomposition and LSTM

Abstract

With the rising demand for environmental protection, wind energy has made considerable progress as a clean energy source. Due to the uncertainty of wind power generation, accurate forecasting of wind power is conducive to achieving stable grid-connected control of wind turbines. This paper proposes an ultra-short-term wind power forecasting model composed of variational modal decomposition (VMD) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Obtain the recorded historical wind speed and historical power from the wind field data acquisition and monitoring control system (SCADA), and use VMD to decompose and reconstruct the historical wind speed of the wind field to form 5 training data sets. Using historical power, historical wind speed, and predicted wind speed as input, wind power forecasts for the next 4 hours (15 minutes apart) are made. In order to evaluate the prediction ability of the proposed model, two algorithms, LSTM and XGBoost, are used for prediction. Taking root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) as evaluation indicators, the results show that the prediction accuracy of wind power is significantly improved after VMD processing, and the performance of LSTM is better than XGBoost in the two evaluation indicators.