Abstract
The utility of model output data from the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is explored for very short-term forecasting (5-30 minutes horizon) of wind speed to be used in large scale simulations of an autonomous electric power grid. Using this synthetic data for the development and evaluation of short-term forecasting algorithms offer many unique advantages over observational data, such as the ability to observe the full wind flow field in the surrounding region. Several short-term forecasting algorithms are implemented and evaluated using the synthetic data at several different time horizons and for three different geographic locations. Comparison is made with observational data from one location. We find that short-term forecasts of the synthetic data considering wind flow from the surrounding region perform 26% better than persistence in terms of root mean square error at the 5-minute time horizon. This improvement is comparable to studies of observational data in the literature. These results provide motivation to use synthetic data for short term forecasting in grid simulations, and open the door to future algorithmic improvements.
Highlights
Accurate short-term wind speed forecasts are of significant value to the wind energy industry
The potential value of very short-term wind speed forecasts (5 to 30-minute horizon) when used by an electric grid replete with these autonomous, controllable, and distributed energy resources is not well understood. This problem is being studied through extensive computer simulations at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as part of the Autonomous Energy Systems project [3]
Work We see evidence that statistical short term forecasting algorithms can produce realistic forecasting errors on synthetic data in some cases. This provides evidence that short-term wind speed forecasts made using synthetic data could be useful for large-scale simulations of the electric grid
Summary
Accurate short-term wind speed forecasts are of significant value to the wind energy industry. The potential value of very short-term wind speed forecasts (5 to 30-minute horizon) when used by an electric grid replete with these autonomous, controllable, and distributed energy resources is not well understood. This problem is being studied through extensive computer simulations at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as part of the Autonomous Energy Systems project [3]. We call the model output data “synthetic data” in this context To understand how these simulations will react to forecasting errors, short-term forecasts of wind speed from the WIND toolkit are being developed
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
