Short-term traffic flow prediction at isolated intersections based on parallel multi-task learning

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel phase-based short-term traffic flow prediction method based on parallel multi-task learning for isolated intersections. Different from traditional short-term traffic flow prediction methods, we take the traffic flow of each phase as the minimum prediction unit, instead of directly utilising the traffic flow of a single lane with large random fluctuations. Meanwhile, we design a novel encoding and decoding structure whereby external influencing factors have been incorporated both into encoding and decoding operations. Furthermore, a fusion strategy is proposed to predict the traffic flow of each phase by integrating the traffic flows of lanes whose right of way are provided by the phase. In the fusion strategy, we develop a parallel multi-task prediction framework whereby a new loss function is defined to improve the prediction accuracy. Finally, the proposed method is tested with the traffic flow data collected from an intersection of South Changsheng Road located in the city of Jiaxing. The findings illustrate that the proposed method can achieve better prediction results at different sampling time scales, compared to the existing short-term traffic flow prediction methods.