Short-term prediction of ionospheric peak parameters and TEC by the updated IRI model

Abstract

Software for predicting ionospheric parameters at mid latitudes is described. This paper demonstrates the principal opportunity using an updated IRI model for accurate short-term prediction. Variations of the quiet level IRI are adjusted by regular measurements of the ionospheric electron density vs. height profile by digital ionosonde during the preceding 3 to 5 quiet days. The second step corrects the F2 layer peak parameters for geomagnetic disturbances by the techniques developed at IZMIRAN. Ionospheric predictions with the proposed software were tested on data from the Warsaw ionosonde for several large geomagnetic storms during 1993. Currently measured real-time ionosonde data is used to improve the prediction of the local electron density for the following 24 hours.