Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on an EPT-VMD-TCN-TPA Model

Abstract

Accurate short-term load forecasting is the key to ensuring smooth and efficient power system operation and power market dispatch planning. However, the nonlinear, non-stationary, and time series nature of load sequences makes load forecasting difficult. To address these problems, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting method (EPT-VMD-TCN-TPA) based on the hybrid decomposition of load sequences, which combines ensemble patch transform (EPT), variational modal decomposition (VMD), a temporal convolutional network (TCN), and a temporal pattern attention mechanism (TPA). In which, the trend component (Tr(t)) and the residual fluctuation component (Re(t)) of the load series are extracted using EPT, and then the Re(t) component is decomposed into intrinsic modal function components (IMFs) of different frequencies using VMD. The Tr(t) and IMFs components of the fused meteorological data are predicted separately by the TCN-TPA prediction model, and finally, the prediction results of each component are reconstructed and superimposed to obtain the final predicted value of the load. In addition, experiments after reconstructing each IMF component according to the fuzzy entropy (FE) values are discussed in this paper. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method in this paper, we used datasets from two Areas of the 9th Mathematical Modeling Contest in China. The experimental results show that the predictive precision of the EPT-VMD-TCN-TPA model outperforms other comparative models. More specifically, the experimental results of the EPT-VMD-TCN-TPA method had a MAPE of 1.25% and 1.58% on Area 1 and Area 2 test sets, respectively.