Short-Term Power Forecasting of Small-Scale Hydropower Based on Projection Pursuit Algorithm

Abstract

Compared with other traditional energy, the small-scale hydropower which is intermittent energy can not be stored and scheduled. The greater fluctuant of the output power of small-scale hydropower leads to great difficult to the operation of the power system. Most of the existing small-scale hydropower forecasting is considered as the load forecasting factors, and there is not effective forecasting method. This paper establishes an output power forecasting model of the small-scale hydropower based on Projection Pursuit. The simulation results show that the new algorithm has a strong practical application in the small-scale hydropower output power forecasting and the forecast accuracy meets the scheduling requirements.