Short‐term ice accretion forecasting model for transmission lines with modified time‐series analysis by fireworks algorithm

Abstract

In order to reduce the damages of transmission line icing, an effective ice accretion forecasting can be used to guide the de-icing work. The ice accretion on transmission lines varies slowly over time, and the icing data series is characteristic of timing sequence and autocorrelation. Time-series analysis is suitable for analysing the similar data series, and fireworks algorithm (FA) is used to determine the autoregressive order and the moving average order of time-series analysis. Then a short-term ice accretion forecasting for transmission lines with modified time-series analysis by FA is built. The ice accretion experiments were done in artificial icing laboratory. The results show that the modified time-series analysis model by the FA has higher accuracy than another five models, whose relative errors are <1.3% and closer to the experimental data. Field applications also show that the modified time-series analysis model has higher accuracy than the traditional one for the short-term ice accretion forecasting, whose average error rates are separately 2.6723 and 5.2654%.