Short-term gas load prediction based on GRA-IPSO-LSTM

Abstract

With the improvement of natural gas production, supply and marketing mechanism, the effective prediction of natural gas short-term load is of great significance for rational allocation of resources and solving urban energy security. Grey relation analysis (GRA) was used to determine the main controlling factors affecting the short-term load of natural gas. The inertia weight and acceleration factor of the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm were improved by applying a nonlinear change strategy. The hyperparameters suitable for the LSTM model were found by using an optimization algorithm, and a combination model of GRA-IPSO-LSTM was formed. Other models are compared to verify the accuracy and reliability of the model. The results show that, according to the size of the grey correlation degree, the factors that have little influence on the daily load can be deleted step by step to reduce the complexity of the subsequent prediction model. The iteration speed, convergence accuracy, and optimization quality of the IPSO algorithm are improved, which reduces the limitation of the artificial selection of LSTM model hyperparameters. The MAPE, RMSE, and R of the GRA-IPSO-LSTM combined model are 5461.02 m3, 0.49%, and 0.99932, which significantly improve the prediction accuracy, proving that the combined model in this paper can be used for accurate prediction of short-term natural gas load.