Short-term effects of fine particulate matter constituents on mortality considering the mortality displacement in Zhejiang province, China

Abstract

BackgroundEvidence linking mortality and short-term exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5) constituents was sparse. The mortality displacement was often unconsidered and may induce incorrect risk estimation. ObjectivesTo assess the short-term effects of PM2.5 constituents on all-cause mortality considering the mortality displacement. MethodsDaily data on all-cause mortality and PM2.5 constituents, including sulfate (SO42−), nitrate (NO3−), ammonium (NH4+), organic matters (OM), and black carbon (BC), were collected from 2009 to 2020. The mortality effect of PM2.5 and its constituents was estimated using a distributed lag non-linear model. Stratified analyses were performed by age, sex, and season. ResultsPer interquartile range increases in SO42−, NO3−, NH4+, OM, and BC were associated with the 1.42% (95%CI: 0.98, 1.87), 3.76% (3.34, 4.16), 2.26% (1.70, 2.83), 2.36% (2.02, 2.70), and 1.26% (0.91, 1.61) increases in all-cause mortality, respectively. Mortality displacements were observed for PM2.5, SO42−, NH4+, OM, and BC, with their overall effects lasting for 7–15 days. Stratified analyses revealed a higher risk for old adults (>65 years) and females, with stronger effects in the cold season. ConclusionsShort-term exposures to PM2.5 constituents were positively associated with increased risks of mortality. The mortality displacement should be considered in future epidemiological studies on PM constituents. Data availabilityData will be made available on request.