Shoreline change rate dynamics analysis and prediction of future positions using satellite imagery for the southern coast of Kuwait: A case study

Abstract

The studied shoreline extends 73 kilometers, starting from the Kuwait-Saudi Arabia borders northward. This work represents a limited work that analyses the historical shoreline positions. Five-dates satellite images along a period of 35 years between 1986 and 2021 were used to calculate the historical shoreline change rates and predict future shoreline positions in 2030 and 2050. First, the historical shoreline was extracted using the Normalized Difference Wader index (WI 2015). Then, the shoreline change rates were quantified statistically using the End Point Rate (EPR) and the Linear Regression Rate (LRR) models of the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) tool in ArcMap. It has been found that the maximum erosion rate is –9.73 m/year, and the highest accretion is 10.88 m/year. Also, the positions of shorelines in the year 2030 and 2050 were predicted and defined on the map, with mapping of gain and loss surfaces. The results defined the most stable areas for future development and the areas needing urgent protection. It has been found that the resulting model can be affected by the topographical changes of the beaches due to human activities, where the coast alongside the Al-Khiran project will be eroded and accreted less than predicted because of the presence of protection facilities.