Shoreline and land use–land cover changes along the 2004-tsunami-affected South Andaman coast: understanding changing hazard susceptibility

Abstract

Abstract. The 2004 tsunami affected the South Andaman coast, causing it to experience dynamic changes in the coastal geomorphology and making the region vulnerable. We focus on pre-and post-tsunami shoreline and land use–land cover changes from 2004, 2005, and 2022 to analyze the dynamic change in hazard. We used General Bathymetric Chart of the Ocean (GEBCO) data to calculate run-up [m], arrival times [min], and inundation [m] at a few locations using three tsunamigenic earthquake source parameters, namely the 2004 Sumatra, 1941 North Andaman, and 1881 Car Nicobar earthquakes. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System is used for the shoreline change estimates. Landsat data are used to calculate shoreline and land use–land cover (LULC) change in five classes, namely built-up areas, forests, inundation areas, croplands, and water bodies during the above period. We examine the correlation between the LULC changes and the dynamic change in shoreline due to population flux, infrastructural growth, and gross state domestic product growth. The Indian industry estimates the Andaman and Nicobar Islands losses exceeded INR 10 billion during 2004, which would today see a 5-fold increase in economic loss due to a doubling of built-up area, a 3-fold increase in tourist inflow, and population density growth. The unsustainable decline in the forest cover, mangroves, and cropland would affect sustainability during a disaster despite coastal safety measures.