Shizuoka Prefecture Along the Tokaido of the Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations

Abstract

Shizuoka Prefecture, in the ancient Tokaido of the Goki-Shichido, is made up of the formerly named Tootoumi, Suruga, and Izu provinces. According to the 2020 national census, the population of Shizuoka prefecture was 3,633,202, a decrease of 67,103 (−1.8%) from the previous national census in 2015. It is the 10th largest, accounting for 2.9% of the total population of Japan (126,146,099). The prefecture is divided into four regions (Seibu, Chubu, Tobu, and Kamo), and comprises 35 municipalities today. Looking at the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 by prefecture level, Shizuoka Prefecture is about the middle of the total 47 prefectures (−20.5% against the national average of −16.3%). However, when we analyzed it by municipality, we find a wide range of variations within the prefecture (from the highest of Nagaizumi-cho of Tobu region: −3.0%, to the lowest of Nishi Izu-cho of Kamo region: −65.4%). The municipal power indicators for each of these regions do not seem to differ from one another in any significant manner. However, the progress of shrinking Japan seems to be accelerating in the Kamo region much faster than other regions in the prefecture (−51.7% against the prefectural average of −20.5%). It is striking that for the projected population increase rates by municipality of Shizuoka Prefecture the six municipalities of the Kamo region that are all clustered around the bottom layers on the indicator, hold similar positions on the marriage power index. In fact, the marriage power (X) on the population sustaining power (Y) for 35 municipalities in Shizuoka Prefecture in 2013 is significant at 0.001 level (Y = −3.449 + 0.578X, variance explained R2 = 0.558, p = 0.000). The marriage power in 2015 of Nagaizumi-cho (5.99‰) and of Nishi Izu-cho (2.869‰) likely indicate their projected population increase rate for 2045. Thus, we can say that the theoretical hypothesis of the Goki-Shichido and regional variations is also validated for Shizuoka Prefecture. During the coronavirus pandemic, municipalities in Shizuoka Prefecture seemed to attract outmigrants from the metropolitan Tokyo area, most likely due to changes in the work style, availability of highly developed transportation facilities, and people’s preference for living in the countryside. For detailed analyses of the municipal power, we selected three municipalities: Nishi Izu-cho, a community with a shrinking population, Yoshida-cho whose population increase rate is about the average of all 35 municipalities in Shizuoka Prefecture, and Nagaizumi-cho, that represents a municipality in which the population is increasing. With the development of the Pharma Valley Nagaizumi Industrial Park, the population of Nagaizumi-cho continues to grow to 43,488 by 2020. Nagaizumi-cho provides various acclaimed child-rearing support programs, and the town has come to be known as a child friendly municipality where it is easy to give birth and raise children.