Niigata Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations

Abstract

Ishikawa Prefecture—along the ancient Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido—is made up of the formerly named Kaga and Noto provinces. It is divided into four regions (Southern Kaga, Northern Kaga, Southern Noto, and Northern Noto), and comprises 19 municipalities today. Looking at the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 by prefecture level, Ishikawa Prefecture is in relatively good standing (ranked 12th: −17.9%; against the national average: −16.3%). However, when we analyze it by municipality, we find a wide range of variations within the prefecture (from the highest of Nonoichi-shi: 10.5%, to the lowest of Noto-cho: −58.7%). The municipal power indicators identified for the Noto regions, both Southern (five municipalities) and Northern (four municipalities), have quite a traditional outlook for their family and household demographic characteristics. On the contrary, however, the Kaga regions, both southern (six municipalities) and northern (four municipalities) have characteristics similar to those found in urban areas. It is striking that for the projected population increase rates by municipality of Ishikawa Prefecture, nine municipalities of the Noto regions that are all clustered around the bottom layers on the indicator, do so on the marriage power index. In fact, the impact of the marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 19 municipalities in Ishikawa Prefecture in 2013 is significant at 0.001 level (Y = −3.382 + 0.679X, variance explained R2 = 0.603, p = 0.000). The marriage power in 2015 of Nonoichi-shi (6.24‰) and Noto-cho (2.36‰) likely indicate their projected population increase rate for 2045. Thus, we can say that our theoretical hypothesis of the Goki-Shichido and regional variations for Ishikawa Prefecture is validated. For detailed analyses of the municipal power, we selected two municipalities: Nonoichi-shi, that represents a municipality in which the population is increasing, and Noto-cho, a community with a shrinking population. Nonoichi-shi is a relatively young city, having been designated in 2011. It has been evaluated as being the No. 1 livable city of all the 821 Japanese cities in 2020. A well-balanced basic industry is necessary for Nonoichi-shi to continue to maintain its population structure. In analyzing the shrinking municipality of Noto-cho, we found its fertility decline and the aging population are at a critical point, and have surpassed the marginal settlement level. Nevertheless, the Noto High School Attractiveness Project should be evaluated highly. Noto-cho needs to make the best use of the World Agricultural Heritage-designated natural resources of the Satoyama and Satoumi areas by promoting the sixth-sector industrialization with the advanced ICT of Society 5.0.