“Ship-port-country” multi-dimensional research on the fine analysis of China's LNG trade

Abstract

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is a clean and low-carbon energy source that plays an important role in combating global warming. As the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, China has taken coal-to-gas as an important measure to reduce GHG emissions, and has become the world's largest LNG importer. Studying the patterns and characteristics of China's LNG trade is of great significance for ensuring energy supply security, formulating and adjusting energy strategies. However, the refined analysis of China's LNG trade is still inadequate, mainly due to the lack of research on the details of ship trajectories and port attributes. Therefore, a “ship-port-country” multidimensional LNG trade analysis method is proposed to improve the timeliness, multi-dimensionality and fineness of China's LNG trade analysis. The multidimensional characteristics of China's LNG trade are analyzed by studying the big data of nearly 3.5 billion automatic identification system (AIS) records in 2017. The study has found that (1) The arrival frequency of China's LNG trading ships varies greatly with time. For example, the most frequent daily arrivals are between 04:00 and 05:00 in the morning, while the least frequent arrivals are between 15:00 and 17:00 in the afternoon. (2) The Chinese LNG trade network consisting of 79 ports has been formed, of which NANTONG Port is the most important port. (3) The LNG trade volume calculated in this study has shown a strong correlation with the national LNG trade statistics and can be used to analyze LNG trade with higher spatial and temporal resolution. According to the characteristics of LNG trade at the three levels of ship, port and country, China can optimize its LNG trade policy from the following aspects: (1) Dynamically allocate port resources according to the arrival frequency of LNG tankers to reduce port congestion and waste of resources. (2) Expand core LNG trading ports such as NANTONG Port, ZHOUSHAN Port, TANGSHAN (JINGTANG) Port, XIUYU Port, DALIAN Port and LUSHUN Port. (3) Actively realize the diversification of LNG trading partners to reduce the dependence of LNG import sources on one country or region, and ensure energy security. The “ship-port-country” multi-level LNG trade analysis method proposed in this study provides a new research perspective for the analysis of the LNG trade pattern. This study reveals the multidimensional characteristics of China's LNG trade, which can provide decision-making support for China to formulate reasonable LNG trade policies and energy security policies, and is conducive to the stable and sustainable development of global LNG trade.