Ship recycling—estimating future stocks and readiness for green steel transformation

Abstract

This article addresses ship recycling. Often criticized for dire health and safety conditions at breaking destinations in the Global South, our article considers ship recycling as a potential future source for secondary steel in green transformations. It represents an analysis of forthcoming changes in the regulatory framework, an initial assessment of steel stocks based on publicly available data, and a local case study. Here, the article assesses the capability of Bremen, a city in Northern Germany, to gain a relevant future market share. Our results indicate (a) the regulatory framework is dynamic due to the entry into force of the Hong Kong Convention in 2025 und the current revision of the EU Ship Recycling Regulation; (b) the future market is significant, roughly equivalent to the entire current US car fleet in terms of steel stocks; (c) the ability to act locally depends on a variety of critical factors, including political will, entrepreneurial capital, and space requirements. The article concludes with an outlook on the importance of such a development for the transition towards ‘net zero steel’ and provides a perspective on future research needs.