Ship Detention Situation Prediction via Optimized Analytic Hierarchy Process and Naïve Bayes Model

Early warning on the ship deficiency is crucial for enhancing maritime safety, improving maritime traffic efficiency, reducing ship fuel consumption, etc. Previous studies focused on the ship deficiency exploration by mining the relationships between the ship physical deficiencies and the port state control (PSC) inspection results with statistical models. Less attention was paid to discovering the correlation rules among various parent ship deficiencies and subcategories. To address the issue, we proposed an improved Apriori model to explore the intrinsic mutual correlations among the ship deficiencies from the PSC inspection dataset. Four typical ship property indicators (i.e., ship type, age, deadweight and gross tonnage) were introduced to analyze the correlations for the ship parent deficiency categories and subcategories. The findings of our research can provide basic guidelines for PSC inspections to improve the ship inspection efficiency and maritime safety.

Port state control (PSC) inspections, considered a crucial means of maritime safety supervision, are viewed by the industry as a critical line of defense ensuring the stability of the international supply chain. Due to the high level of globalization and strong regional characteristics of PSC inspections, improving the accuracy of these inspections and efficiently utilizing inspection resources have become urgent issues. The construction of a PSC inspection ontology model from top to bottom, coupled with the integration of multisource data from bottom to top, is proposed in this paper. The RoBERTa-wwm-ext model is adopted as the entity recognition model, while the XGBoost4 model serves as the knowledge fusion model to establish the PSC inspection knowledge graph. Building upon an evolutionary game model of the PSC inspection knowledge graph, this study introduces an evolutionary game method to analyze the internal evolutionary dynamics of ship populations from a microscopic perspective. Through numerical simulations and standardization diffusion evolution simulations for ship support, the evolutionary impact of each parameter on the subgraph is examined. Subsequently, based on the results of the evolutionary game analysis, recommendations for PSC inspection auxiliary decision-making and related strategic suggestions are presented. The experimental results show that the RoBERTa-wwm-ext model and the XGBoost4 model used in the PSC inspection knowledge graph achieve superior performance in both entity recognition and knowledge fusion tasks, with the model accuracies surpassing those of other compared models. In the knowledge graph-based PSC inspection evolutionary game, the reward and punishment conditions (n, f) can reduce the burden of the standardization cost for safeguarding the ship. A ship is more sensitive to changes in the detention rate β than to changes in the inspection rate α. To a certain extent, the detention cost CDC plays a role similar to that of the detention rate β. In small-scale networks, relevant parameters in the ship’s standardization game have a more pronounced effect, with detention cost CDC having a greater impact than standardization cost CS on ship strategy choice and scale-free network evolution. Based on the experimental results, PSC inspection strategies are suggested. These strategies provide port state authorities with auxiliary decision-making tools for PSC inspections, promote the informatization of maritime regulation, and offer new insights for the study of maritime traffic safety management and PSC inspections.

Port state control (PSC) inspection is an important measure to improve ship safety and reduce ship accident rate. To improve the effectiveness of PSC inspections, some MoUs have begun to implement new inspection regime (NIR). However, the effectiveness of NIR remains to be studied. Then this study aims to verify the effectiveness of NIR and improve shipping safety. In this study, Bayesian Network model is used to establish the relationship between NIR, ship deficiencies, detention and ship accident to explore the impact of NIR on maritime safety. The data in this study are from PSC inspection data in the Tokyo Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and accident data in the International Maritime Organization (IMO). By analyzing the changes of the number of ship deficiency, detention rate and accident rate before and after NIR implementation, the effectiveness of NIR can be verified. The results show that the implementation of NIR does not effectively reduce the number of substandard ships, but the number of ships with serious deficiencies is significantly reduced. However, ship accident rate has not declined. Therefore, it is believed that Tokyo MoU needs to further improve the effectiveness of NIR and strengthen supervision of defective ships.

Port state control (PSC) inspection is the most important mechanism to ensure world marine safe. Recently, some SVM-based risk assessment systems have been presented in the world. They estimate the risk of each candidate ship based on its generic factors and history inspection factors to select high-risk one before conducting on-board PSC inspection. However, how to improve the performance of the PSC inspection under the situation of noisy data when applying SVM is still a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose a new approach for PSC inspection, which uses a novel support vector machine and k-nearest neighbor (KNN-SVM) to remove noisy training examples and Bag of Words (BW) to extract some new target factors for the PSC inspection database. The experimental results show that the generalization performance and the accuracy of risk assessment are improved significantly compared to that of the traditional SVM classifier, and adapt to engineering applications.

Using Bayesian network-based TOPSIS to aid dynamic port state control detention risk control decision

Incorporation of deficiency data into the analysis of the dependency and interdependency among the risk factors influencing port state control inspection

The paper evaluates effectiveness of fire drills for emergency and responding to Port State Control (PSC) inspections on board. A brief background about the PSC inspection on fire drills on board is introduced in the beginning. Then the significance of effectiveness evaluation on fire drills is presented. Next, legal ground is discussed on International Conventions, including regulation of related regional group, national maritime laws and rules and Concentrated Inspection Campaign (CIC). Furthermore, PSC New Inspection Regime (NIR) for Paris Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and Tokyo MOU are also discussed, and many deficiencies related to fire safety measures found in the PSC inspection are statistically analyzed. More importantly, the paper introduces System Engineering Theory, presents the principle and method of effectiveness evaluation, focuses on the preparation, performance and rehabilitation of fire drill and develops the Criterion of Effectiveness Evaluation. Finally, some suggestions are raised to carry out effectiveness evaluation for emergency and responding to the PSC inspection.

Ship detention decision plays a key role in port state control (PSC) inspection process, which is compactly related to navigation safety and maritime environmental protection. Many focuses were paid to exploit intrinsic relationship among ship attributes (ship age, type, etc.), detention events and typical ship deficiencies. It is noted that many ship detention prediction frameworks were implemented considering single type of factors regardless of internal relationship between ship crucial deficiencies and ship attributes. To address the issue, we proposed a support vector machine (SVM) based framework to exploit crucial ship deficiencies, and thus forecast the probability of ship detention event. Firstly, we design a feature selection scheme to determine ship fatal deficiency types by exploring historical PSC inspection data. Secondly, we predict the ship detention event via conventional support vector machine (SVM) with support of ship feature selection outputs. Thirdly, we verify the proposed framework performance by predicting ship detention event from historical PSC data, which is quantified with the indicators of accuracy () and area under ROC curve (). The research findings help PSC officials easily identify fatal ship deficiencies, and thus make more reasonable ship detention decision in real-world PSC activity.

Flag choice and Port State Control inspections—Empirical evidence using a simultaneous model

A knowledge graph-based inspection items recommendation method for port state control inspection of LNG carriers

The Port State Control (PSC) inspection of liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers is crucial in maritime transportation. PSC inspection requires rapid and accurate identification of defects with limited resources, necessitating professional knowledge and efficient technical methods. Knowledge distillation, as a model lightweighting approach in the field of artificial intelligence, offers the possibility of enhancing the responsiveness of LNG carrier PSC inspections. In this study, a knowledge distillation method is introduced, namely, the multilayer dynamic multi-teacher weighted knowledge distillation (MDMD) model. This model fuses multilayer soft labels from multi-teacher models by extracting intermediate feature soft labels and minimizing intermediate feature knowledge fusion. It also employs a comprehensive dynamic weight allocation scheme that combines global loss weight allocation with label weight allocation based on the inner product, enabling dynamic weight allocation across multiple teachers. The experimental results show that the MDMD model achieves a 90.6% accuracy rate in named entity recognition, which is 6.3% greater than that of the direct training method. In addition, under the same experimental conditions, the proposed model achieves a prediction speed that is approximately 64% faster than that of traditional models while reducing the number of model parameters by approximately 55%. To efficiently assist in PSC inspections, an LNG carrier PSC inspection knowledge graph is constructed on the basis of the recognition results to quickly and effectively support knowledge queries and assist PSC personnel in making decisions at inspection sites.

Port state control (PSC) inspection contributes a lot to improving maritime safety and protecting the marine environment. After selecting the ships coming to a port for inspection, one critical challenge faced by the PSC authorities is deciding what deficiency items should be inspected and what the inspection sequence of these items is. To address this problem, two innovative and high-efficient PSC inspection schemes describing specific PSC inspection items and sequence are proposed for the inspectors’ reference when time and resources are limited, especially when there are difficulties in estimating the possible deficiencies in advance. Both schemes take the occurrence probability, inspection cost, and ignoring loss of each deficiency item into account. More specifically, the first inspection scheme is based on the occurrence probabilities of the deficiency items in the whole data set, while the second scheme further considers the correlations among the deficiency items extracted by association rules. The results of numerical experiments show that the efficiency of the two proposed inspection schemes is 1.5 times higher than that of the currently used inspection scheme. In addition, the second inspection scheme performs better than the first inspection scheme, especially with inspecting ships with no less than five deficiency items and limited inspection resources.

This article uses data generated by Port State Control (PSC) inspections of ships in national ports (Paris MoU) to assess their compliance with radio-communications safety regulations. By mainly applying binary logistic regression methods, the aim is to examine and understand the relationship between the severity of deficiencies in maritime communications and some characteristics of inspected ships. The raw data from the PSC detention database from 2005 to 2022 undergoes post-processing before being analyzed to explore patterns and coincidences with the rest of the potential risk areas. To do so, 23,725 PSC inspections were used. Several classification criteria have been proposed that can better gauge the risk related to distress communications at sea from the dataset. The results connect the probability of detention with the ship age at the inspection date, the flag of the registry, the type of ship, and the location of the port within the countries adhering to the Paris MoU. Another achievement is that the number of PSC inspections of maritime communications in a given period is a better indicator of the risk to safety than the total number of deficiencies detected in these inspections during the same period. This study also explores inspection deficiencies related to competency gaps identified in the Global Maritime Distress Safety System (GMDSS) operators, and precisely using the number of PSC inspections as a criterion of risk for safety is consistent with the recommendations of the Maritime Safety Committee Circular (2006), MSC.1/Circ.1208. Another finding from the time series is that a greater rate of decrease is identified for GMDSS equipment-related deficiencies compared to GMDSS training-related deficiencies. This alone poses a review of the refreshing courses and methods to maintain the General Operator Certificate (GOC) qualification to operate maritime radio communications facilities belonging to the (current and future) GMDSS.

Port state control (PSC) inspection is the most important mechanism to ensure world marine safe. This paper presents a risk assessment system, which estimates the risk of each candidate ship based on its generic factors and history inspection factors to select high-risk one before conducting on-board PSC inspection. The target factors adopted in Paris MOU PSC inspection and Tokyo MOU PSC inspection are considered in this system as well as the new factors discovered in the PSC inspection database. A risk assessment system based on support vector machine (SVM) is developed to classify candidate ships to high risk or low risk, respectively, based on the target factors. Experiment results show that the proposed system enhances the risk assessment accuracy effectively.

Port State Control (PSC) inspections conducted under the Paris Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) agreement have become a crucial tool for maritime administrations in European Union countries to ensure compliance with international maritime safety standards by ships entering their ports. This paper analyses all PSC inspections conducted in 10 major European ports belonging to the Paris MoU between 2012 and 2019. For its study, a multivariate HJ-Biplot statistical analysis is carried out, which facilitates the interpretation and understanding of the underlying relationships in a multivariate data set by representing a synthesis of the data on a factorial plane, with an interpretation that is very intuitive and accessible for readers from various fields. Applying this method with ship characteristics as explanatory variables, several classifications were derived. These classifications align with the annual performance lists published by the Paris MoU and the International Association of Classification Societies list, suggesting that this method could serve as a reliable classification approach. It provides maritime authorities with an additional indicator of a ship’s risk profile, aiding in the prioritising of inspections. The method also effectively categorises ports and types of ships used for cargo transport, offering insights into the specific maritime traffic each port experiences. Furthermore, this study identifies characteristics associated with substandard ships, which is a primary objective of PSC inspections. Beyond revealing these traits, this research underscores the existence of several readily applicable techniques to enhance maritime safety and reduce the risk of ocean pollution.