Ship collision risk analysis: Modeling, visualization and prediction

Abstract

Ship collisions are the primary threat to traffic safety in the sea, which can seriously threaten human lives, the environment and material assets. Therefore, the detection and analyze of ship collision risks have important theoretical significance and application value. To improve maritime safety and efficiency, we propose a modeling, visualization and prediction framework to analyze ship collision risk. In particular, to fully consider the maneuverability of the ship, we introduce the quaternion ship domain (QSD) into the vessel conflict ranking operator (VCRO). In addition, to further analyze and better understand collision risk, the kernel density estimation (KDE) model is employed to visualize the ship collision risk. The ship collision risk usually contains underlying patterns and laws. Thus, we proposed a convolutional long short-term memory network (ConvLSTM) model, which can extract spatial–temporal features and predict spatial–temporal risk. Finally, to verify the reliability and robustness of the framework, we conducted extensive experiments on the automatic identification system (AIS) data of Chengshantou water. The results show that the framework demonstrates superiority in risk calculation, visualization and prediction. Theoretically, the framework proposed in this paper can serve maritime intelligent transportation system well.