Shifts in Vegetation Cover of Southern California Deserts in Response to Recent Climate Variations

Abstract

In the deserts of Southern California, air temperatures have been rising and precipitation variability has been increasing over the past several decades. These recent climate shifts may have begun to threaten the survival of certain plant and animal species in these arid ecosystems. This study was designed to quantify and characterize variations in vegetation canopy density using more than 30 consecutive years of Landsat satellite image data across the western Lower Colorado (Sonoran) and southern Mojave Desert region. Mapping of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from Landsat images (1985 to 2017), which has been closely correlated with percent cover measurements of green vegetation canopies in a variety of arid ecosystems, was used to detect periodic upslope and downslope shifts in plant cover. The change in Landsat NDVI between 1985 and 2017 within the Santa Rosa Mountains Wilderness at four elevation zones between 500 m and 2500 m showed that vegetation green cover dropped notably in below-average precipitation periods, whereas green cover increased sharply in above-average precipitation years. This same temporal pattern of shifting in NDVI was detected along steep elevation gradients in the Anza-Borrego Desert State Park and in the Little San Bernardino Mountains of Joshua Tree National Park. Although the distribution of the dominant plant species along elevation gradients may have increased by more than 60 m over several decades (prior to 2007), we found no evidence that upslope shifts in percent plant cover have yet become a permanent pattern at these mountainous desert sites.