Abstract
Land cover change from renewable energy development in southern California is receiving increasing attention due to potential impacts on protected area conservation, endangered species, and greenhouse gas emissions. This study was designed to quantify and map, for the first time, variations desert vegetation canopy density and related growth rates using 30 consecutive years of Landsat satellite image data across the Lower Colorado Desert. The time-series for mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values sampled from each of the three major land cover types (shrubland, barren sand dune, and developed urban) showed no significant positive or negative trend in vegetation canopy density. Three periods of significant decrease in NDVI were detected during the drought periods of 1989-1990, 2002-2003, and 2013-2015, indicating that annual precipitation has been the main controller of shrubland canopy growth and green cover. Shrubland canopy cover has been relatively stable in renewable energy development zones since the mid-2000s. NDVI change in the period after nearly all southern California solar energy developments were initiated (post-2010) could be attributed largely to topographic water flow pathways through canyons and desert washes, both in and around all solar energy development zones.
Highlights
Damage to native shrubland vegetation in southern California resulting from solar energy development projectsHow to cite this paper: Potter, C. (2016) Landsat Time Series Analysis of Vegetation Changes in Solar Energy Development Areas of the Lower Colorado Desert, Southern California
Across all 30 years, 2 standard errors (SE) of the mean yearly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) sampled for shrubland cover varied between 20 and 40 NDVI units, whereas the three largest negative departures from the 30-year shrubland NDVI mean were between 300 and 500 NDVI units during these extreme drought periods in southern California
It can be concluded that inter-annual variations in precipitation accounted for most the periodic changes in NDVI in shrubland communities observed since 1985 across the Lower Colorado Desert
Summary
Damage to native shrubland vegetation in southern California resulting from solar energy development projectsHow to cite this paper: Potter, C. (2016) Landsat Time Series Analysis of Vegetation Changes in Solar Energy Development Areas of the Lower Colorado Desert, Southern California. Renewable energy development projects sited near protected areas (e.g., state and national parks) have been suspected of disrupting dispersion capabilities of native species and facilitating invasions of non-native species through habitat loss, fragmentation, and isolation [2]. These same assessment reports [2] [3] have called for, but have not included, rigorous statistical analyses that could quantify both internal and external threats to protected southern California desert ecosystems, as required for assessing vulnerability of landscape sustainability. Reference [12] reported similar results for NDVI correlations with fractional cover in creosote-dominated shrubland sites of New Mexico
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