Abstract
It has frequently been reported that species with strong niche conservatism will not be able to adapt to new climatic conditions, so they must migrate or go extinct. We have evaluated the shifts in climatic niche occupation of the species Astrophytum coahuilense and its potential distribution in Mexico. We understand niche occupation as the geographic zones with available habitats and with the presence of the species. To assess shifts in climatic niche occupation, we used niche overlap analysis, while potential distribution modeling was performed based on the principle of maximum entropy. The results indicate that this species presents a limited amplitude in its climate niche. This restriction of the climatic niche of A. coahuilense limits its ability to colonize new geographical areas with different climatic environments. On the other hand, the potential distribution models obtained from the present study allow us to identify potential zones based on the climatic requirements of the species. This information is important to identify high priority areas for the conservation of A. coahuilense.
Highlights
Mexico is the most important center of diversity for genus and species of cactus
Astrophytum coahuilense is an endemic cactus from Mexico that occurs in southwestern Coahuila and adjacent areas of Durango, México [3]
This study considered the 28 geographic records located within the distribution area of A. coahuilense proposed by Fitz-Maurice et al [3,6] and the six climatic variables identified above, in addition to the variable of altitude
Summary
Mexico is the most important center of diversity for genus and species of cactus. Astrophytum coahuilense is an endemic cactus from Mexico that occurs in southwestern Coahuila and adjacent areas of Durango, México [3]. This species grows predominately on rock-strewn, calcareous terrain, together with conspicuous xerophytes, which include Larrea tridentata, Prosopis juliflora, Fouquiera splendens, Agave lechuguilla, Euphorbia antisyphilitica, and Hechtia sp. A. coahuilense has a relatively small geographic range and faces several threats to its survival [4]. Its principal method of dispersion is hydrochloric, and its current range of distribution was established through lakes and rivers of the Pleistocene. Its current dispersal capacity is limited [5]. It has been mentioned that the main factors responsible for the decline of its populations are the fragmentation and reduction of habitat quality [6]
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