Abstract
Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.
Highlights
Climate change is a looming threat to Earth’s biodiversity, with island ecosystems being among the most gravely threatened (Wetzel et al 2012, 2013; Gibson et al 2013)
Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Modeling here employed. (A) Species occurrence data and climate data were prepared for Madagascar, (B) species distribution models (SDMs) were built based on ten widely used modeling techniques. (C) The resulting models, including replicates of each method, are filtered based on their abilities to predict known occurrences and pseudo-absences using a true skill statistic (TSS). (D) The resulting models with TTS values ≥ 0.85 were projected throughout the climate of the current landscape and two future climate models
Summary
Climate change is a looming threat to Earth’s biodiversity, with island ecosystems being among the most gravely threatened (Wetzel et al 2012, 2013; Gibson et al 2013). Geospatial analyses can be utilized to forecast the directionality and magnitude of shifting habitats and be deployed for predicting the future distribution of biodiversity. The lemurs of Madagascar have been identified as the world’s most endangered vertebrates (Schwitzer et al 2013), it is unknown how climate change will impact their future distributions and already high-risk status. To look at the potential distribution changes resulting from future climate change, we employ ensemble species distribution models (Araujo and New 2007) under a conservative model (IPCC 2007) to a 2015 The Authors.
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