Incorporating interspecific relationships into species distribution models can better assess the response of species to climate change, a case study of two Chinese primates

Abstract

Whether the distribution of species can track future changes in climate will ultimately determine their survival. However, traditional predictions of species distributions in response to climate change often ignore the effects of biotic interactions. Here, we incorporated interspecific competition into SDMs (Species distribution models) to assess the distribution of two species endemic to China, namely the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellanae) and Tibetan macaque (Macaca thibetana), in response to climate change. Due to overlap areas in the distributions of both species, niche competition between the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey and Tibetan macaque was observed, and the former was less competitive in terms of theirability to source food and their reproductive capacity. The area where niche overlap between the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey and Tibetan macaque occurs accounts for half of the suitable habitat for the former, suggesting that the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey cannot use this habitat effectively. Both species are predicted to lose more than 70 % of their suitable habitat by the 2050s, and the altitude of suitable habitat will likely decrease. Bio3 (Isothermality) and Bio13 (Precipitation of Wettest Month) were the most important climatic variables affecting the distribution of the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey and Tibetan macaque, respectively. The suitable habitat of the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey and Tibetan macaque was fragmented into several isolated pieces, which requires that ecological restoration should be carried out in advance. We demonstrated that the incorporation of interspecific competition into SDMs can accurately assess the response of species to future climate change, as less competitive species cannot effectively use their suitable habitat.