Shatterbelts and conflict behaviour: The effect of globalisation on ‘high risk’ states

Abstract

This article ties together seemingly disparate literatures (those of globalisation and ‘shatterbelt states') as a means of investigating the changing conflict behaviour of high‐risk states. The objective of this research is to ascertain empirically whether the circumstances that generate aggression by high‐risk states are the same as those for others. In addition, by examining how conflict behaviour has changed over time, and in conjunction with trade openness, these tests speak to the importance of economic interdependence as a mitigating counterforce to aggressive tendencies. The results indicate that domestic instability and fragmentation are more directly tied to high‐risk state behaviour than are systemic influences. In contrast, the probability that low‐risk states originate or participate in conflicts, and resort to violence, is tied to international factors. Surprisingly, increased repression seems to result from the opposite circumstances. For high‐risk states, changes in repressive behaviour are tied to the external environment while low‐risk states seem prone to change levels of repression in conjunction with their internal conditions. Lastly, and most importantly, trade openness has an important pacifying effect on high‐risk states, but appears to be irrelevant to the conflict behaviour of all others. Globalisation, it appears, mitigates the violence that is often initiated by high‐risk states. These results offer important preliminary evidence for understanding high risk‐states and the strategies that may reduce their aggressiveness.