Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture

Heikki S Lehtonen,Mikael Hildén,Suvi Huttunen,Stefan Fronzek,Janne Helin,Minna Kaljonen,Pasi Rikkonen,Nina Pirttioja,Vilja Varho,Jyrki Niemi,Taru Palosuo,Timothy R Carter,Jyrki Aakkula

doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2

Abstract

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.

Highlights

Future anthropogenic climate change is an issue permeated with uncertainties in all regions of the world
Some indications of alternative future economic, demographic and technological trends in Finland have been explored in earlier studies (Kaivo-oja et al 2004; Carter et al 2005) based on global scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES–IPCC 2000)
Of the feedback received on the draft summary narratives and workshop as a whole, most was positive, though a few participants expressed disappointment at the lack of advance distribution of materials included in the introductory workshop presentations

Summary

Introduction

Future anthropogenic climate change is an issue permeated with uncertainties in all regions of the world. Some indications of alternative future economic, demographic and technological trends in Finland have been explored in earlier studies (Kaivo-oja et al 2004; Carter et al 2005) based on global scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES–IPCC 2000). Aspects of the latter scenarios were adopted in Finland’s first climate change adaptation strategy (MMM 2005)

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Discussion

Conclusion