Abstract
AbstractWe used open population, spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models to estimate sex‐specific density, survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rate of ocelots (Leopardus pardalis) at five sites in Belize with up to 12 yr of data per site. Open population SCR models enabled us to separate survival and recruitment from migration using an ecologically realistic, spatially explicit movement model. Yearly survival probability across 4 broadleaf forest sites was estimated at 0.73–0.84 for males and 0.81–0.87 for females, with no clear indication of sex differences. Yearly per capita recruitment was estimated across four broadleaf forest sites at 0.06–0.08 recruits/N for males and 0.09–0.12 recruits/N for females, again with no clear indication of sex differences. At a pine forest site with a population comprised largely of males, survival and recruitment estimates were similar to the broadleaf sites. Population densities in the broadleaf forest sites ranged from 6.5 to 14.7 ocelots/100 km2, and 0.9–2.5 ocelots/100 km2 in the pine forest site, with strong evidence of a female‐biased sex ratio in the broadleaf sites and a male‐biased sex ratio in the pine forest site. We also found strong evidence that female within‐year space use at the broadleaf sites was smaller than that of males, and that within‐year space use at the pine forest site was larger than that at broadleaf sites. Between‐year home‐range relocation at broadleaf sites was of a similar spatial scale as within‐year space use, consistent with philopatry. We found evidence of a small population decline (posterior probability > 0.9) at two of four broadleaf sites; however, given the level of uncertainty about decline magnitudes, we suggest continued monitoring of these sites to increase site‐years and gain further precision on population growth rate estimates. Estimating demographic parameters at large spatial and temporal scales is important for establishing reliable baseline estimates for future comparison and for understanding changes in population dynamics. Long‐term data sets like those we collected are of particular importance for long‐lived species living at low densities and large spatial scales, where not many individuals are exposed to capture in any one year.
Highlights
The ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) is distributed across South and Central America, the islands of Trinidad and Margarita, Mexico, and southern Texas in the United States
Judging by the overlap of 95% highest posterior density (HPD) intervals, there was not a strong indication that per capita recruitment varied between the sexes or across sites, all 4 female point estimates were larger than those for the males (Fig. 2)
The precision of these per capita recruitment and survival parameter estimates as measured by the 95% HPD width varied as a function of both the number of years considered and the population density
Summary
The ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) is distributed across South and Central America, the islands of Trinidad and Margarita, Mexico, and southern Texas in the United States. Retaliatory killing due to depredation on poultry (Amador-Alcala et al 2013), along with habitat loss and fragmentation, is currently the main threat to ocelot survival (Sunquist and Sunquist 2002). In Belize, and other Neotropical countries, deforestation stemming from large-scale agriculture and infrastructure development (Young 2008, Nogueira and Nogueira-Filho 2011, Aide et al 2013), as well as increased human populations, threaten the long-term survival of ocelots. An understanding of how survival and recruitment contribute to population growth rate is necessary to provide a baseline for comparison to future population trends. Of particular importance is the recruitment rate since ocelots naturally have low fecundity (e.g., low reproductive rates, long inter-birth intervals, and small litter sizes)
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