Abstract
In 2015–2016, South America went through the largest Zika epidemic in recorded history. One important aspect of this epidemic was the importance of sexual transmission in combination with the usual vectorial transmission, with asymmetrical transmissibilities between sexual partners depending on the type of sexual contact; this asymmetry manifested itself in data as an increased risk to women. We propose a mathematical model for the transmission of the Zika virus including sexual transmission via all forms of sexual contact, as well as vector transmission, assuming a constant availability of mosquitoes. From this model, we derive an expression for , which is used to study and analyze the relative contributions of the male to female sexual transmission route vis-à-vis vectorial transmission. We also perform Bayesian inference of the model’s parameters using data from the 2016 Zika epidemic in Rio de Janeiro.
Highlights
Vector-borne diseases and sexually-transmitted diseases have had their transmission dynamics extensively analyzed through mathematical models [1,2]
We propose here a mathematical model for studying the combined vectorial and asymmetrical sexual transmission of Zika
Vectorial transmission is simplified in the proposed model, because the model seeks to represent a single epidemic where mosquito density is high and is not likely to pose any limits to transmissibility
Summary
Vector-borne diseases and sexually-transmitted diseases have had their transmission dynamics extensively analyzed through mathematical models [1,2]. Models and diseases combining both modes of transmission are less common, but it is rare to have detailed data available to validate theoretical considerations raised by the modeling [3,4]. The first cases of human infection were recorded in Nigeria and Tanzania from 1952–1954 [6], spreading slowly across the Asian continent. Before 2007, ZIKV was not considered a disease of substantial concern to human beings because only isolated cases involving small populations had been reported worldwide [7]. ZIKV transmission had previously only been documented in regions of Africa and Asia, but in 2007, it was detected in Yap, Micronesia, causing a small outbreak. In 2012/2013, it caused a new outbreak in French Polynesia, spreading across the other Pacific islands, resulting in an epidemic with more than 400 confirmed cases [8]
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