Abstract

The article presents a method for setting the optimal time for special audit to improve the level of cyber defense of an enterprise working in the field of market relations of IT services. Studying the issue of providing measures to reduce the risk of a cyber-incident, analyzed the time series of the intensity of cyber-attacks of the enterprise. An analytical function of the cyber-attack intensity at an enterprise that satisfies the nonlinear Bernoulli differential equation is considered. The elasticity interval of the analytic function of the cyber-attack intensity at the enterprise is found. Analysis of cyber-attack time series on the enterprise system for the same time periods falling within the time interval from the end of the planned audit to the beginning of the next one. An analytical alignment of the time series of the cyber-attack intensity function was performed using a logistic curve. A stepwise p-transformation of a small parameter into a cyber-attack intensity function for an enterprise was introduced and the dimensionlessness of the variables was performed, which made it possible to calculate the sensitivity of a dimensionless cyber-attack intensity function from a small parameter p over a set time period. The study is based on the application of the theory of elasticity of the intensity function of cyber-attacks, which determines the time interval at which to conduct a special audit at the enterprise. Due to the found elasticity interval of the cyber-attack intensity function, the optimal time for special audit was determined.

Highlights

  • Enterprise cyber security as a component of information security is defined as the protection of local and cloud business infrastructure, as well as the verification of third-party vendors and the protection of the growing number of endpoints connecting to the enterprise information system via the Internet [1]

  • The development of a forecasting and analytical model for conducting audits is based on the theory of elasticity, which determines the finding of the elasticity interval of the cyber-attack intensity function, which is subject to the logistic law, which made it possible to apply modernized approaches to the existing audit system of the enterprise

  • Bernoulli differential equation, which, according to the hypothesis that the integral cyber-attack intensity function is subject to the logistic law, describes the process of the time series of cyber-attack intensity: I K (t) I K (t)Max I K (t), IK (t)

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Summary

Introduction

Enterprise cyber security as a component of information security is defined as the protection of local and cloud business infrastructure, as well as the verification of third-party vendors and the protection of the growing number of endpoints connecting to the enterprise information system via the Internet [1]. As the threat and cost of cybercrime grows, so does the need for tactical actions (express audits, etc.) and a comprehensive enterprise information security strategy [3]. The analysis of cyber-attacks between planned audits has received little attention in the technical literature [2]. The denial of service (DoS) cyber-attacks [7], the study of worms and botnet activity [8], the analysis of data on the number of cyber-attacks collected in a black hole [9] and in one-way motion [10] are investigated in the scientific literature. In [13], the position of the enterprise cyber security is characterized on the basis of data collected in black holes

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