Abstract
A probabilistic formulation is proposed to assess the performance of the support structure of offshore wind turbines based on their probability and expected time of exceeding specified drift thresholds. To this end, novel probabilistic models are developed to predict the mean and standard deviation of the drift ratio response of wind turbine support structures operating under day-to-day loads as a function of the wind turbine geometry and material properties, and loading conditions. The proposed models are assessed using a database of virtual experiments generated using detailed three-dimensional (3D) nonlinear finite element (FE) models of a set of representative wind turbine configurations. The developed models are then used in a random vibration formulation to estimate the probability and expected time of exceeding specified drift thresholds. As an example, the probability and expected time of exceeding specified drift thresholds are estimated for a typical offshore wind turbine at different wind speeds. A comparison is made between the results obtained based on the proposed models, those obtained using simulators commonly used in practice and detailed 3D nonlinear FE analyses.
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