Sequel movie revenue prediction model based on sentiment analysis

Abstract

PurposeSequel movies are very popular; however, there are limited studies on sequel movie revenue prediction. The purpose of this paper is to propose a sentiment analysis based model for sequel movie revenue prediction and to propose a missing value imputation method for the sequel revenue prediction dataset.Design/methodology/approachA sequel of a successful movie will most likely also be successful. Therefore, we propose a supervised learning approach in which data are created from sequel movies to predict the box-office revenue of an upcoming sequel. The algorithms used in the prediction are multiple linear regression, support vector machine and multilayer perceptron neural network.FindingsThe results show that using four sequel movies in a franchise to predict the box-office revenue of a fifth sequel achieved better prediction than using three sequels, which was also better than using two sequel movies.Research limitations/implicationsThe model produced will be beneficial to movie producers and other stakeholders in the movie industry in deciding the viability of producing a movie sequel.Originality/valuePrevious studies do not give priority to sequel movies in movie revenue prediction. Additionally, a new missing value imputation method was introduced. Finally, sequel movie revenue prediction dataset was prepared.