Sensitivity of South America Climate to Positive Extremes of Antarctic Sea Ice.

Abstract

Global climate change is expected to increasingly affect climate-sensitive sectors of society, such as the economy and environment, with significant impacts on water, energy, agriculture and fisheries. This is the case in South America, whose economy is highly dependent on the agricultural sector. Here, we analyzed the sensitivity of South American climate to positive extremes of Antarctic sea ice (ASI) extent and volume at continental and regional scales. Sensitivity ensemble experiments were conducted with the GFDL-CM2.1 model and compared with the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. The results have shown significant impacts on the seasonal regime of precipitation, air temperature and humidity in South America, such as a gradual establishment of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, the formation of the Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortex, the strengthening of Bolivian High and the presence of a low level cyclonic circulation anomaly over the South Atlantic Subtropical High region which contributed, for instance, to increased precipitation over the Southeastern Brazil. A northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was initially also a response pattern to the increased ASI. Moreover, the greatest variance of the climatic signal generated from the disturbances applied on the high southern latitudes has occurred in the interseasonal timescale (110-120 days), especially over the Brazilian Amazon and the Southeastern Brazil regions.