Sensitivity of Historical Simulation of the Permafrost to Different Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets from 1979 to 2009

Abstract

AbstractNumerical simulation is of great importance to the investigation of changes in frozen ground on large spatial and long temporal scales. Previous studies have focused on the impacts of improvements in the model for the simulation of frozen ground. Here the sensitivities of permafrost simulation to different atmospheric forcing data sets are examined using the Community Land Model, version 4.5 (CLM4.5), in combination with three sets of newly developed and reanalysis‐based atmospheric forcing data sets (NOAA Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Re‐Analysis Interim (ERA‐I), and NASA Modern Era Retrospective‐Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)). All three simulations were run from 1979 to 2009 at a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and validated with what is considered to be the best available permafrost observations (soil temperature, active layer thickness, and permafrost extent). Results show that the use of reanalysis‐based atmospheric forcing data set reproduces the variations in soil temperature and active layer thickness but produces evident biases in their climatologies. Overall, the simulations based on the CFSR and ERA‐I data sets give more reasonable results than the simulation based on the MERRA data set, particularly for the present‐day permafrost extent and the change in active layer thickness. The three simulations produce ranges for the present‐day climatology (permafrost area: 11.31–13.57 × 106 km2; active layer thickness: 1.10–1.26 m) and for recent changes (permafrost area: −5.8% to −9.0%; active layer thickness: 9.9%–20.2%). The differences in air temperature increase, snow depth, and permafrost thermal conditions in these simulations contribute to the differences in simulated results.