Abstract
Crop production was simulated with the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) for five representative farms in the Midwestern USA under a variety of climate scenarios. The impact on yields and water use in corn, soybean, winter wheat and sorghum was simulated over a range of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2]) conditions. Stomatal resistance and leaf area index, plant physiological factors affected by changes in [CO 2], were also varied in some of the simulations. Changes in each of these variables altered crop yields and water use. Increases in temperature accelerated the phenological development for all crops, shortened time to maturity, lowered yields, and decreased water use efficiency. Changes in precipitation and vapor pressure affected crop yield and water use by altering the degree of water stress experienced by the crop. For all crops, changes in precipitation and vapor pressure were positively correlated with changes in yield. Changes in solar radiation, which affect the amount of photosynthetically active radiation captured by the plant, were positively correlated with changes in crop yield. Increases in [CO 2] and consequent increases in leaf area index and stomatal resistance increased crop yield and water use efficiency, lessening any negative impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure and solar radiation and amplifying their positive effects. Interactions between different climate variables resulted in crop yield responses ranging from a multiplicative decrease when humidity and precipitation are decreased.to a reduction in crop yield when solar radiation is increased and precipitation decreased. The demonstrated interactions of climatic factors indicate that future studies of climate change impacts should consider the full spectrum of climate variables and changes in atmospheric CO 2 and not just temperature and precipitation.
Published Version
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