Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Crop yield and Evaluation of Coping Strategy using Crop Growth Simulation Model

Abstract

Any change in climate will have implications for climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture, forestry and some other natural resources. Changes in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation will produce changes in crop yields and hence economics of agriculture. It is possible to understand the phenomenon of climate change on crop production and to develop adaptation strategies for sustainability in food production, using a suitable crop simulation model. CERES-Maize model of DSSAT v4.0 was used to simulate the maize yield of the region under climate change scenarios using the historical weather data at Kharagpur (1977-2007), Damdam (1974-2003) and Purulia (1986-2000), West Bengal, India. The model was calibrated using the crop experimental data, climate data and soil data for two years (1996-1997) and was validated by using the data of the year 1998 at Kharagpur. The change in values of weather parameters due to climate change and its effects on the maize crop growth and yield was studied. It was observed that increase in mean temperature and leaf area index have negative impacts on maize yield. When the maximum leaf area index increased, the grain yield was found to be decreased. Increase in CO2 concentration with each degree incremental temperature decreased the grain yield but increase in CO2 concentration with fixed temperature increased the maize yield. Adjustments were made in the date of sowing to investigate suitable option for adaptation under the future climate change scenarios. Highest yield was obtained when the sowing date was advanced by a week at Kharagpur and Damdam whereas for Purulia, the experimental date of sowing was found to be beneficial.