Sensitivity of Arctic Climate Variability to Mean State: Insights from the Cretaceous

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Abstract This study investigates Arctic climate variability during a period of extreme warmth using the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Four mid-Cretaceous simulations were completed with different CO2 levels (1, 10, and 16 times preindustrial levels with dynamic vegetation) and vegetation treatments (10 times with specified uniform bare ground). The magnitude and frequency of Arctic temperature variability is highly sensitive to the mean state and high-latitude upper-ocean static stability. As stability increases with a rise in CO2 levels from 1 to 10 times preindustrial levels, the frequency of temperature variability increases from decades (1x) to centuries (10x with bare ground) and longer (10x) and the peak-to-peak magnitude increases from ~1° (for 1x) to ~2°C (for 10x). In the 16x simulation with a highly stratified ocean, Arctic temperature variability is low with peak-to-peak magnitudes <0.5°C. Under low CO2, Arctic climate variability is tied to sensible heat release from the ocean during movement of the sea ice margin. In absence of substantial sea ice, variability is driven by mass transport and upper-ocean salinity advection into the Arctic. In both cases, destruction of low-level clouds acts as an important feedback on low-level warming. The authors also report a link between unforced Arctic climate variability and North Pacific meridional overturning with warming events leading intensification. These results suggest that the nature of Arctic climate variability was likely much different in past climates and is likely to be so in the future.