The Effect of the Sea Ice Freshwater Flux on Southern Ocean Temperatures in CCSM3: Deep-Ocean Warming and Delayed Surface Warming

Abstract

Abstract This study explores the role of sea ice freshwater and salt fluxes in modulating twenty-first-century surface warming in the Southern Ocean via analysis of sensitivity experiments in the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3). In particular, the role of a change in these fluxes in causing surface cooling, expanding sea ice, and increasing deep oceanic storage of heat in the Southern Ocean is investigated. The results indicate that in response to the doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere in CCSM3, net freshwater input from sea ice to the ocean increases south of 58°S (owing to less growth) and decreases from 48° to 58°S (owing to less melt). The freshwater source from changing precipitation in the model is considerably less than from sea ice south of 58°S, but it serves to compensate for the reduction in sea ice melt near the ice edge, leaving almost no net freshwater flux change between about 48° and 58°S. As a result, freshwater input principally from sea ice reduces ocean convection, which in turns reduces the entrainment of heat into the mixed layer and reduces the upward heat transport along isopycnals below about 1000 m. The reduced upward heat transport (from all sources) causes deep-ocean heating south of 60°S and below 500-m depth, with a corresponding surface cooling in large parts of the Southern Ocean in the model. These results indicate that changing sea ice freshwater and salt fluxes are a major component of the twenty-first-century delay in surface warming of the Southern Ocean and weak reduction in Antarctic sea ice in model projections.